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The Pacific Trade and Development (PAFTAD) conference series has been at the forefront of analysing challenges facing the economies of East Asia and the Pacific since its first meeting in Tokyo in January 1968. The 38th PAFTAD conference met at a key time to consider international economic integration. Earlier in the year, the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union and the United States elected Donald Trump as their next president on the back of an inward-looking 'America First' promise. Brexit and President Trump represent a growing, and worrying, trend towards protectionism in the North Atlantic countries that have led the process of globalisation since the end of the Second World War. The chapters in the volume describe the state of play in Asian economic integration but, more importantly, look forward to the region's future, and the role it might play in defending the global system that has underwritten its historic rise. Asia has the potential to stand as a bulwark against the dual threats of North Atlantic protectionism and slowing trade growth, but collective leadership will be needed regionally and difficult domestic reforms will be required in each country.

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La 4ème de couverture indique : "L'OFCE propose un bilan annuel de l'économie européenne. L'édition 2018 présente l'histoire de l'intégration européenne, y compris les négociations du Brexit, ainsi que l'analyse de la conjoncture, les évolutions de la mobilité du travail en Europe, la politique climatique, les réformes politiques et économiques. Les frustrations à l'égard de l'Union européenne (UE) soulèvent la question des principes de représentativité dans un ensemble aussi vaste : quelle forme de démocratie permettrait aux citoyens de se sentir représentés par les instances européennes? Quels principes budgétaires pourraient assurer le respect des objectifs de l'UE : la discipline, focalisée sur les dettes, ou la stabilisation, centrée sur la croissance? Quel pourrait être le mandat de la BCE : la stabilité des prix ou, de façon plus étendue, la stabilité financière? L'élargissement de la zone euro obligera-t-il à revoir la représentativité politique du Conseil des gouverneurs de la BCE? Après le Brexit, assisterons-nous à une réallocation du capital financier vers l'Europe continentale? L'ouvrage inclut des références bibliographiques ainsi que de nombreux tableaux et graphiques.

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This paper examines the links between adverse events, depression, and decision making in Nigeria. It investigates how events such as conflicts, shocks, and deaths can affect short-term perceptions of welfare, as well as longer term decisions on economic activities and human capital investments. First, the findings show that exposure to conflict has the largest and strongest relationship with depression, associated with a 15.3 percentage point increase in the probability of reporting depressive symptoms (from a base of 22 percent). This is equivalent to a reduction in annual per capita income of around US$52 (in present day terms). Second, the study randomized the timing of the module on adverse events with respect to the mental health module. The analysis finds that individuals who were reminded about their history of adverse events (provided that they had one) have a 6.5 percentage point higher probability of reporting depressive symptoms. The final sets of results show that depression is associated with lower labor force participation and child educational investment. People with depressive symptoms are 8 percentage points less likely to work; this is driven by a reduction in engagement in agricultural activities for men and self-employment for women. In addition, households with a parent exhibiting depressive symptoms spend 20 percentage points less on education. These results suggest that there is a direct link between mental health, welfare perceptions, and decision making, beyond the indirect link via exposure to adverse effects.

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Economic policy.